Immigration
France | Parliamentary Elections—What the results of the Parliamentary elections could mean for immigration
Summary
With the anti-immigration National Rally (RN) coming third in the parliamentary elections, their ability to shape immigration policy is likely to be more limited than before. The leftist alliance New Popular Front (NFP) won the most seats, with Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble close behind.
It is now up to the French President to appoint the Prime Minister to lead a new government. However, given the absence of an outright majority, the current government should remain in place to manage current affairs, until the new National Assembly convenes on July 18th, 2024. What this will mean for immigration policy remains to be seen.
The detail
The results
Following the second round of voting in France’s parliamentary elections for the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration National Rally did not make the gains earlier polls had suggested. With all votes counted, no party has obtained the 289 seats required to govern with an outright majority. At the time of writing, the key results are reported to be as follows:
New Popular Front: 182 seats
Ensemble: 168 seats
National Rally: 143 seats
The Republicans: 46 seats
This means negotiations between party leaders will determine whether a coalition can secure a majority or, alternatively, a minority government can survive a no-confidence vote.
What this means for migration policy
The results signal a change in direction for the National Assembly. However, the change in direction may not immediately be towards a stricter policy on migration and asylum, as would likely have been the case if National Rally had emerged as the winner.
In recent months, National Rally was able to pressure Macron into enacting stricter rules on immigration, such as introducing migration quotas, restricting nationality rules and limiting the renewal of certain temporary residence permits. This was part of a compromise deal to pass sweeping changes to France’s immigration legislation, including new categories for medical workers and undocumented workers.
Looking ahead
It is unlikely that National Rally will be able to exert similar influence following this election result. However, the NFP alliance may be well placed to do so in future. As many parties who are now part of the NFP alliance were opposed to the legislative deal that was passed, it is possible that some restrictive measures could be reversed.
This depends on the outcome of talks between party leaders and how they plan to govern during the upcoming parliamentary term. Emmanuel Macron’s presidential term ends in 2027.
Contact us
For a deeper discussion on the above, please reach out to your Vialto Partners point of contact, or alternatively:
Sharan Kundi
Partner
Arzhvaël Le Fur
Partner
Violaine Jaussaud
Senior Manager
Hugo Vijge
Director
Frédérique Montalti
Director
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